Recently Lovelock revised his view;
“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. ..”
Lovelock apparently still speaks ambiguously. When he says, “We do not know….” So he is a skeptic, denier or whatever, it doesn’t make any difference.
So far no one has presented calculations upon which we can clearly say:
1. If the scientists have a consensus about global warming, in this case, the IPCC’s theory risk is %( XX),
2. And if the IPCC’s theory is rejected, then the risk is %(YY),
However, the solutions with less risk, seems to be preferred.
The scientists are very similar to basketball and football players. They may play in different clubs.
Lovelock says, “We do not know….” So the deficit problem is necessary and sufficient information.
Incomplete theories, premature conclusions, inexperience, with the impression that this is the final theory, unhealthy competition, sometimes feel irresponsibility, unavailability of sufficient information, being faced with large variables, need for teamwork with the necessary expertise, individualism, sometimes misuse of public position, eventually entering politics, all contribute to a scientist with misconceptions still make mistakes. I am sure just in one case; if any decent scientist discovers the mistake, he will deviate from it. Lovelock did it.If Lovelock discovers that the Chimera has dropped its previous comments, all who know him, again but this time more advanced, he will come back to the field.
April 30, 2012 at 8:59 am
“But when, in an immature field of science, there is a plausible argument and some evidence for an effect that will destroy us and everything we care about if we don’t act immediately, what SHOULD we do if we don’t allow ourselves to use heuristic reasoning?”