Daily Archives: May 20th, 2012

Steig Siple dD: 11th – 20th Century with Lowess

The Whiteboard

Steve McIntyre has a post about Steig’s Siple dD series in which he posts a chart of the 20th century to undermine Schmidt’s claim that there are exceptionally high values in late 20th Century. And, indeed, the 20th century appears to be relatively trendless when eyeballed on that chart. McIntyre included his code.

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New research from last week 19/2012

AGW Observer

Wouldn’t it be nice to see something like following headlines in popular news media:

“Growth change of oak and beech are related to climate time series and N deposition trends!”

“Atmospheric lifetime of methane only 9.1 ± 0.9 years!”

“WAIS Divide was colder than the last 1000-year average from 1300 to 1800 C.E.!”

“Concentrations of rBC in the ice cores displayed significant variability at annual to decadal time scales!”

I bet papers with these in their frontpage would be sold out in minutes.

Contrary to expectations, British butterflies don’t utilise an increased range of habitat types with global warming

Habitat associations of thermophilous butterflies are reduced despite climatic warming – Oliver et al. (2012)

Abstract: “Climate warming threatens the survival of species at their warm, trailing-edge range boundaries, but also provides opportunities for the ecological release of populations at the cool, leading edges of their distributions. Thus, as the climate…

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Pierre Gosselin: Papers Showing Sun As Main Driver Keep Rolling In – IPCC Focus On CO2 Looking More Like A Delusional Obsession


Dr. Sebastian Lüning (geologist) and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (chemist) at their website here discuss a recent (peer-reviewed) paper appearing in the journalPalaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.

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Pierre Gosselin: Yet Another Paper Shows “The Enormous Importance Of Solar Activity Fluctuations On Climate”


Yet another study has appeared in the Journal of Geophysical Research, this one looks at the precipitation history on the Tibetan Plateau of the last 1000 years.

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Is The Stratosphere Responsible For Global Warming?


Variations in ozone in the lower stratosphere could be the main reason for the global warming seen in the past few decades, according to a new paper in press at the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. It is claimed that the new model is capable of explaining 82% of the total Earth temperature variability.

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van Hateren 2012: May the Schwartz be with you

The Whiteboard

Figure 6. Isomorphism between resistance-capacitance circuit and two-compartment energy balance climate model. Differential equations on right can be solved to give time dependence for arbitrary applied time-dependent forcing (current). Dashed boxes enclose corresponding one-compartment systems. The figure is modified from the Reply to Comments on my 2007 paper and an in-press paper (Spring, 2012) that interprets the observed increase in GMST over the latter part of the twentieth century in terms of the two-compartment model.

Stephen E. Schwartz Home Page

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Another fingerprint

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When my kids were younger, they asked me why the ocean was blue. I would answer that the ocean mirrors the blue sky. However, I would not think much more about it, even though it is well-known that the oceans represent the most important source for atmospheric moisture. They also play an important role for many types of internal variations, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Now a new study by Durack et al. (2012) has been published in Science that presents the relationship between the oceans and the atmosphere.


When it rains over the ocean, the salty ocean water gets diluted by fresh water from the clouds, whereas in regions with high evaporation and little rainfall, the evaporation takes away the water and leaves the salt behind in the ocean. If there is a systematic increase in rainfall over some regions and enhanced evaporation in others, then this ought to leave a fingerprint in form of reduced and increased salinity in the respective regions. This is exactly what Durack et al. (2012) have found.

This finding is consistent with earlier model-based suggestions that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming (Giorgi et al., 2011). The Durack et al. (2012) study was based on surface salinity measurements from the ARGO floats combined with sparser historical data over a period of 50 years (Durack et al., 2010). They studied the changes in the spatial structure in terms of linear regression against time over the 50-year period. The change in salinity was consistent with the notion of a strengthening of the hydrological cycle by ~8%/°C.

They also compared their results with global climate model simulations (which involve coupled atmosphere-ocean models) as well as ocean model simulations (forced by atmospheric data). Ocean models use the laws of physics to describe how the ocean currents flow, the water masses mix, and how these processes affect temperature and salinity. The most important inputs to the ocean models are wind forcing, evaporation and rainfall.

The model results give a similar picture as the observations, albeit with an under-estimation of the hydrological cycle speed-up. By looking at projections for the future, the Durack et al. (2012) analysis points to a “substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle [that] will occur in a future 2°C to 3°C warmer world”.

The mean surface salinity of the world oceans. Source: http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/corals/4c.html

There is a sinister twist to these inferences. A warmer world is predicted to result in both increased rainfall intensity (mean precipitation estimated for the wet days only) as well as increased length of dry spells (Giorgi et al., 2011). Moreover, in a recent paper, I have together with two colleagues shown that the more extreme rainfall amounts closely follow the rainfall intensity (Benestad et al. (2012). From these results, it seems that we can expect more extremes in both floods and droughts.

Finally, the analysis by Durack et al. (2012) provides another fingerprint of a global warming. However, this finding aspect is not entirely new: the last IPCC report already concluded there is an enhancement of the hydrological cycle, based on observed ocean salinity changes. The method and the conclusion are therefore not new, but the new Argo data confirm earlier findings and strengthen previous observations: the global warming and changes to the hydrological cycle are closely entangled.

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Global Warming Alarmists Taking A Beating

As I see you’re too young to understand what is the legacy of Lovelock. Lovelock was wrong, so we do not make mistakes. Science is the scene to try and error. But you preferably should not be too sure. Lovelock was the founding ideas that will make the news again. Nothing is sustainable. http://open.spotify.com/track/43AXKJeQVF2OonQZ1H5qX9

Some Stuff You Should Know

As the hole ridden vessel that is man-made warming alarmism continues to sink, former alarmists and those they’ve misled dive for safety. We’ve seen it for as long as we’ve seen the “experts” called to account for their often skewed and in some cases out right misleading findings. The past couple of weeks has been no exception and may in fact have signaled the final warning to abandon ship or be lost forever in the sea of discredit.

In the first week of April there was the NASA letter. Sent to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden Jr and signed by 49 former NASA employees, this letter was a desperate plea from the former employees for GISS and NASA to return to their historic standards of, “making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.” The letter goes on to make a scathing indictment of…

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Big History, Big Mistake

An old proverb says, whenever the puzzle is solved, it is easy. We must ask ourselves, when Lovelock was the only theorist at the scene, where we were. Lovelock was wrong, so we do not make mistakes. Science is the scene to try and error. But you preferably should not be too sure. Lovelock was the founder of ideas that will make the news again and again. Nothing is sustainable. I respect Lovelock very much. Yes The Maverick Lovelock.


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