Statistical Probabilities of Guesswork; Combining Climate Change Models

Big Ten Science

In case you’re wondering, I believe that global climate change is real and that it’s going to happen. Actually, it’s not much of a belief, it’s more of an acceptance of the facts. Last year, roughly 97% of American scientists say that climate change is happening, and they know a hell of a lot more about the facts than I do.

There is, however, a wide range of disagreement within that agreement. People can argue just how much humans are to blame, just how quickly things are moving along, just how bad things are likely to get and how much we can do to stop it. And even within agreements in those smaller categories, there’s still minor discord.

The reason is that the climate is a seriously complex beast to tackle. There’s a lot of scientists out there with a lot of good – but varying – data that they…

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